Title: Attendance Prediction Markets for Better Room Allocation
Authors: Clément Lesaege. X, tg:@clesaege
Resources Required: Provide a list of accepted sessions before their room allocations.
What do you suggest?
Run a prediction market on session attendance (How many people will attend session X?) in order to better assign rooms.
Motivation & Rationale
- How does this improve the attendee experience?
This allows a more efficient use of the space, lowering the risk of some rooms to be overcrowded. We will provide the organisers with a table of estimated attendance for each session.
- What Ethereum use case does it showcase?
This shows:
- Prediction markets on Ethereum, in particular decision markets (markets leading to making better choices).
- Partial resolution prediction markets (we won’t evaluate attendance for all sessions, but the markets should provide estimates of all of them).
Implementation
- Have you done this before at another event?
We had a bunch of individual attendance markets on Seer.
We already have an interface ready to support trading a large amount of conditional markets at once on Foresight.
- How will you make it happen?
We’ll create an attendance market for each session, conditional on the session being evaluated for attendance. A frontend will allow trading for those and we will give some trading credits to people identified as likely to have information on this. The frontend will also allow easy trading for AI developers.
We will report expected attendance to the organisation team.
During the event, we will pick a few sessions to evaluate attendance (10-20 sessions). When resolving the market, the profit/loss of traders will depend entirely of those evaluated sessions. This keeps logistics minimal while having an estimate of all sessions.
Operational Requirements & Ownership
- What’s needed to make this work at Devcon/nect?
Provide the sessions info in advance of room assignment.
- Who will be responsible for running it on site?
Seer + Kleros team members will evaluate attendance of some sessions.
- What other projects could this integrate with?
Side event attendance markets would be great too.
Links & Additional Information
- Previously ran one off attendance markets: Seer | A Next Generation Prediction Marketplace
- Foresight where the conditional attendance markets will be run: https://foresight.kleros.io/
- Initial post where the idea was suggested by @ligi : Futarchy & Decision markets for deciding next Devcon - #5 by ligi