Prediction Markets Community Hub

Summary

This community hub will unite prediction-market builders, researchers, traders, and governance contributors to discuss liquidity, market design, resolution, futarchy, and applications. Led by experienced organizers and six confirmed participating teams (with more welcome to join!), it offers deep dives, open discussions, demos, office hours, and networking sessions for those interested in all things prediction markets.

Motivation and Rationale

Alongside de-fi and stablecoins, futarchy and prediction markets are the latest breakout category to emerge from the blockchain world. They have been used for both forecasting probabilities of events (Polymarket, Kalshi) and also in governance of DAOs and treasury (MetaDAO, Umia, Deep Funding with Seer).

We propose a community hub for discussion around all the intricacies of prediction markets, such as liquidity methods, types of prediction markets, resolution criteria, real-life applications and more. As a fast emerging category, the open discussion format is more suitable than either a simple talk or a booth for a specific product. Our hope is that the Community Hub will provide a forum for evolution of prediction markets similar to the evolution of DEXes and stablecoins from 2019-2025.

Proof of Concept: On 9th august Devfolio hosted an event in Bangaalore around prediction markets from 6-8 pm. Participants got so involved in the discussions it went on all the way until 1130! This showed the genuine interest in prediction markets and prompted us to send in the application for a community hub

There are many fledgling prediction market startups. Giving them a space to share learnings with one another can help accelerate their journey and prevent repetition of mistakes made by one team by others in the space.

Organizing Team and Partners

Main Organizers**:** Devansh Mehta (Seer), Abhitej Singh (Bento), Oxytocin (Umia), Varun Kumar (Independent)

The organizers are not observers, they are active builders and participants inside the exact communities the Hub targets. They ship the products that Ethereum developers, DeFi users, DAO contributors, market makers, and governance researchers already use or experiment with. They also have prior Devcon roles, such as

  • Devansh Mehta served as Devcon emcee in both Thailand and Argentina

  • Abhitej previously spearheaded Cosmos developer community spaces (2020-2021)

  • Oxytocin hosted a Black Swan Workshop at Devcon SEA

Together they have domain specific expertise, live facilitation experience, and a shared interest with turning prediction markets into composable Ethereum primitives rather than isolated platforms

6 reputed teams in the space have already confirmed their participation in the prediction market community hub (if confirmed), with more welcome to join so long as they have a working product (list will be updated as more confirmations come in)

  1. bento.fun , a social media with prediction markets, Abhitej Singh
  2. seer.pm , advanced prediction markets, Clement Lesaege
  3. melee markets, permissionless prediction markets, Manoj Gorle
  4. Umia finance, futarchy governance, Oxytocin (has hosted a Black Swan Workshop in Devcon SEA.)
  5. Skywalk.to, prediction market liquidity, Henry
  6. Kleros, prediction market resolution, Alex

The presence of multiple prediction market based products ensures greater discussion diversity. The organizing team will enforce a strict no-shill policy: any mention of a specific project will occur only when it directly serves a broader technical or conceptual point under discussion (e.g., illustrating a liquidity mechanism or resolution design). The aim is built-in, structural diversity at the hub. No single project can dominate, and every audience segment finds relevant examples without king-making. Personal and team affiliations will be disclosed at the outset of sessions; facilitation will remain strictly topic-focused and inclusive. Moderators will actively redirect any promotional language back to the shared technical questions the community is there to explore.

Programming

For each day we will be requiring:

  1. Large screen TV
  2. Sitting arrangement (Chairs/beanbags/blocks/benches) for 20 participants
  3. HDMI cabal

A rough schedule is provided below for the hub

10 - 11 am: Deep Dive into a specific topic such as resolution of prediction markets, liquidity, or types of markets and application areas

11- 12 pm: open discussion on the deep dive topic

12-1 pm: lunch break

1-2 pm: Office Hours

2-3 pm : Demo + Fireside chat

3-5 pm : Networking / Open Discussion

Audience

Our Community Hub is designed for Ethereum builders, researchers, and practitioners who want to deepen their work on prediction markets, especially those focused on liquidity design, market creation, oracles, resolution mechanisms, and real-world applications. We particularly hope to reach:

  • Core Ethereum and DeFi developers exploring composable primitives

  • DAO and governance contributors interested in futarchy and decision markets

  • Market makers, traders, and analysts from both crypto-native and traditional finance backgrounds

  • Academics and researchers studying information aggregation and forecasting

  • Builders and newcomers from India’s rapidly expanding Ethereum and open-source ecosystem

We also want to engage external communities - media, policy, and enterprise participants—who are already encountering prediction markets in the wider world and can help bridge them further into Ethereum.

Although parts of our team are based outside India, we will actively connect with and co-own the hub alongside India’s growing Ethereum community. We have already demonstrated this approach through a highly engaged prediction-markets event we co-hosted with Devfolio in August. For Devcon we will continue that partnership, invite local builders as co-facilitators and speakers, collaborate with Indian Ethereum meetups and university groups, and shape discussions around use cases relevant to the region. This ensures the hub becomes a genuine collaboration rather than an external event, creating lasting connections between global and Indian open-source contributors.

3 Likes

Prediction markets are unlocking a lot of use-cases that were hard to implement on-chain such as insurance, compute and power markets, conditional markets.

Looking forward to opening a forum/community space at Devcon 2026 for open discussion on new mechanisms, liquidity incentives structures.

1 Like

Really excited to see this come together. Prediction markets are moving beyond simple event forecasting into a much broader design space around information aggregation, governance, and permissionless markets.

Looking forward to the discussions around market design, liquidity, resolution, and the new primitives we can build on top of them. Would be great to see more builders and researchers join in!

Very supportive of this Community Hub.

Kleros has been live on Ethereum since 2018 and has resolved thousands of disputes. Prediction markets have been a major use case for us, with Kleros acting as a resolution layer for multiple projects: Omen, Seer, Precog, Futarchy.fi, Ringo etc.

  • Omen a notable example is the 2020 US election dispute, with more than $2.5M at stake
  • Seer’s Deep Funding markets allocate $350k via Gitcoin Grants 24 for the EF here

As Devansh mentioned, the scope is much broader than prediction markets. A large part of the governance community should also be interested:

  • Futarchy.fi is running a market around EIP-8363 and Ethereum issuance, one of the most debated topics in the community right now here

  • Kleros Foresight is exploring decision markets for grant allocation and we can do a dedicated session on this

Also the DeFi community as Prediction markets can be used as hedging and risk-management tools. Kleros and Seer built a platform inspired by Vitalik’s proposal for betting on many highly improbable events, which we could also share with the audience.

We are also funding research in this space through the Kleros Fellowship on decision markets, oracles and futarchy.

With the sucess of MetaDAO Solana we saw a lot of Prediction Markets building there, it is important for Ethereum to stay competitive and push harder on prediction markets, futarchy and decision markets.

1 Like

Prediction markets are dated - We can trace them back to the 1500s forecasting who is the next pope. Wall street had their own version of presidential betting through late 19th century. Google, HP, Siemens had internal corporate prediction markets to forecast company outcomes and if products would ship on time. The pentagon had a short lived idea to trade geopolitical risk in ‘03.

Today they are poised as a credible information layer, in addition to socials, trad media, tv news, etc. They are expanding too - They can simplify complex trading strategies, hedging instruments, Insurance instruments, sentiment analysis and the list goes.

Many questions still open ended - Is in insider trading a bug or a feature, how do we solve the liquidity problem, leverage, lending/borrowing, aggregation, parlays, regulation, Ai agents on PMs, Ethics, etc

Would be great to see how the industry is thinking about this and the way forward looks like for this ecosystem.